JP Journal of Biostatistics

The JP Journal of Biostatistics is a highly regarded open-access international journal indexed in the Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI). It focuses on the application of statistical theory and methods in resolving problems in biological, biomedical, and agricultural sciences. The journal encourages the submission of experimental papers that employ relevant algorithms and also welcomes survey articles in the fields of biostatistics and epidemiology.

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TEMPORAL MODELLING OF DENGUE CASES IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE FROM 2017 TO 2023: APPLICATION OF THE ARMA MODELS

Authors

  • Meless Djedjro Franck Renaud
  • Yode Armel Fabrie Evrard
  • Attia Konan Akissi Régine
  • N’DRI Kouamé Mathias
  • Boka Akpossan Arthur
  • Amin N’cho Christophe

Keywords:

ARMA, SARMA, dengue, forecasting, Côte d’Ivoire

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514325025

Abstract

Background and objectives. Dengue fever is a persistent public health problem in Côte d’Ivoire, with a recent upsurge in cases leading to instability in the health system. The aim of this study was to train the ARMA and SARMA models to analyze time series on the weekly prevalence of confirmed and suspected dengue cases in Côte d’Ivoire and to use these models to forecast dengue prevalence for the next 52 weeks.

Methods. This secondary study, based on weekly data on confirmed and suspected cases from 2017 to 2023, uses the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) and SARMA (seasonal autoregressive moving average) models to forecast dengue prevalence in Côte d’Ivoire. The data comes from the Institut National de l’Hygiène Publique.

Results. The ARMA and SARMA models were identified as the best performing models, with respective MAE and RMSE of (MAE): 4.41 and 8.68 for the ARMA model and (MAE): 4, 3 and RMSE: 8.66 for the SARMA model.

Conclusion. These models provide valuable information for healthcare planning and resource allocation, even though external factors and complex interactions need to be taken into account.

Received: June 3, 2025
Revised: July 3, 2025
Accepted: July 5, 2025

References

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Published

2025-08-11

Issue

Vol. 25 No. 3 (2025)

Section

Articles

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How to Cite

TEMPORAL MODELLING OF DENGUE CASES IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE FROM 2017 TO 2023: APPLICATION OF THE ARMA MODELS. (2025). JP Journal of Biostatistics, 25(3), 471-483. https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514325025

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